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Responding to an article yesterday about the potential effect of repealing the US EV tax credit, one of our readers provided a great, long comment on a topic I’ve been meaning to cover for months. The “fun with numbers” part is right at the end. Check out the comment below from Tom Storey and enjoy! —Zach
EV adoption has been underway for some years now. The adoption wave consists of two elements … the decline of IC (internal combustion) sales, which is the first measurable, and then, the adoption of EVs. In the US so far, the adoption wave is intact. Gas vehicle sales declines began in 2018 and continue. EV sales growth is fully underway in the US, and at a higher rate globally. All manufacturers everywhere are attempting to manage the transition, as they too are studying the adoption wave. Consumers are surprisingly predictable in these matters … look it up.
Again, it is best to study the decline of the legacy product, even if it isn’t nearly as much fun as reading the media talk about the temporary collapses and surges of EV sales, which mean nothing in the 12 month cycle.
Government incentives really aren’t much of a factor unless you want to borrow some “future sales” for today. $40,000+ on a new car is a lot of money and folks don’t care who the president is or what is going on in the circus when they buy a car. I will admit that for a hundred years, there has been a measurable in the car industry….
New model introductions with colors and new wheels and the like was discovered as a sales booster by Alfred Sloan and General Motors in the ’20s and ’30s.
As of today, we seem to have 71 new EV models available at new car dealerships and websites nationwide. By the fourth quarter of of 2026, there will be 12 new models added to this tally. That means we will be hearing about a new BEV model about every 6 weeks over the next 18 months or so. This is how the legacy product is buried, and sales statistics confirm this.
US combustion vehicle sales in 2018 — 17.4M
US combustion vehicle sales in 2024 — 14.45M
EU combustion vehicle sales in 2018 — 15.6M
EU combustion vehicle sales in 2024 — 11.5M
By Tom Storey
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