How Long Until 50% of Cadillac Sales Are Electric Vehicles in USA?

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As I reported a couple of days ago, 19.1% of Cadillac’s USA sales were full electric vehicle sales in the 1st quarter. That’s almost one out of every five vehicles sold. In my area, I constantly see electric Cadillacs (mostly LYRIQs) and they seem to actually dominate the Cadillacs on the road in this area. (I imagine they don’t and that’s just because I focus more on EVs, but it genuinely does feel like that in recent weeks.)

Furthermore, people who have never expressed interest in electric vehicles to me have been strongly drawn to and considering Cadillac’s EVs, particularly the Cadillac OPTIQ. This got me wonder … how long until Cadillac is selling 100% electric vehicles, or, looking a little nearer, how long until it’s at 50% EV sales? That does feel very realistically close now. What are your thoughts on that? Before I venture a wild guess, there was also a great comment from Matthew Berg I wanted to highlight. In response to someone else referring to sales of all EVs other than Porsche’s as essentially forced compliance cars, he wrote:

“How is Cadillac at 19.1% a ‘compliance market share’? Especially when they’ve already telegraphed a target of 30-35% for the year and are well on track to meet or beat it.

“By next year their ICE offerings will consist of just the CT4, CT5, XT5 and Escalade, while the EV offerings will have the Celestiq, Optiq, Lyriq, Vistiq and Escalade. The XT5 is gone after the next model year, and all indications are that the CT4 and CT5 are on their way out as well.

“Chevrolet should start to accelerate this year. The Equinox is already a solid seller, the Blazer has largely recovered from the initial rocky rollout, the Silverado is gaining more mass market trims (esp if the transition to LFP drops the entry level even further). The reintroduction of the Bolt near the end of the year should be the real game-changer though.

“GMC may not be doing high volume, but with the ATP of the Hummer EV, they are already contributing significantly to the bottom line, and the new model year of the Sierra lowers the cost of entry significantly so should start to swing more volume.

“Buick is a tough one. The original strategy almost certainly was to import the Electra, but sourcing rules for the tax credits derailed that years ago, even before the current trade dispute. Given that a lot of the ICE vehicles are already made-in-China that may endanger the brand in general.”

That’s a very compelling case for GM’s leadership. (And how ironic would it be if GM actually rose up so much that it surpassed Tesla in US EV sales during Trump’s term?) But, getting back to my question at the top and considering all that Matthew wrote, he makes a solid point that GM’s target of 30–35% EV sales this year looks good. And with great EV models still coming, and consumers just getting used to them, one would expect considerably more from 2026. The fact is that electric vehicles simply drive much nicer than non-electric vehicles, and anyone with a garage or place to charge at home (which one would think includes a large portion of Cadillac buyers) will also find home EV charging much, much more convenient than going to gas stations. So, word should spread fast and experiences should prove that it’s simply more luxurious to buy an electric Cadillac. It sort of feels like that message is already out there.

So, taking all of that into account, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that 50% of Cadillac’s sales will be electric vehicles in 2026 — or, if not for the full year, by the second half of 2026.

(Of course, there are also macro factors at play here that could have a strong impact on how things evolve — tariffs, trade wars, Republicans cutting US EV tax credits, recession, economic collapse, etc. You can take that into account when considering your forecast, or you can try to ignore it and hope things will somehow get back on track and scoot along without dramatic disaster.)