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Joseph Stiglitz has been a full professor of economics at Columbia University since 2003. He received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and has served as the chief economist for the World Bank and chair of the US Council of Economic Advisers. He is a prolific author and has written two books that should be on everyone’s reading list — Globalization And Its Discontents in 2002 and Globalization And It Discontents Revisited: Anti Globalization In The Era Of Trump in 2017.
On January 21, 2025, Project Syndicate published an essay by Stiglitz that began with this thesis statement: “Though the United States has long led the world in advancing basic science and technology, it is hard to see how this can continue under President Donald Trump and the country’s ascendant oligarchy. America’s rejection of Enlightenment values will have dire consequences.”
Stiglitz is a student of history from an historical perspective and recalls how Francis Fukuyama called the moment when the Berlin Wall was demolished the “end of history” and predicted that all societies would eventually converge toward liberal democracy and market economies. It was assumed that progress toward a just, inclusive global society would continue into the foreseeable future. “But we should remember that living standards 250 years ago were little different from what they were 2,500 years ago. Not until the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution did we achieve the enormous improvements in life expectancy, health, and living standards that have defined modernity,” Stiglitz writes.
“Enlightenment thinkers recognized that scientific experimentation and tinkering could help people understand nature and create new, transformative technologies; and that the social sciences could enable closer coordination in efforts to improve conditions for all members of society. Such efforts required the rule of law to displace absolutism, respect for truth to prevail over obscurantism, and the elevation of expertise in human affairs. Among the most disturbing features of the MAGA revolution is its outright rejection of these values.
“Can progress continue? Just as the Soviets managed to launch Sputnik, we may see Trump and his followers preside over notable technological feats in space and artificial intelligence. But can we really expect America’s new oligarchy to oversee sustained, widely shared advances? Those in power now are driven wholly by the pursuit of wealth, and they have no reservations about accumulating it through exploitation and rent-seeking. They have already demonstrated their ingenuity in wielding market power and leveraging media and technology platforms to advance their private interests through widespread manipulation and disinformation.”
The difference today, he says, is the “sheer scale and brazenness” of the corruption taking place in America literally by the hour, with new horrors piled upon yesterday’s horrors in a campaign of shock and awe designed to stifle all objections. Thanks to the disastrous Citizens United decision by the US Supreme Court handed down 15 years ago, “American oligarchs can openly ‘contribute’ hundreds of millions of dollars to a politician’s election campaign in exchange for favors. The $465 million no strings attached loan that Tesla received from President Barack Obama’s administration 15 years ago will look like a pittance compared to what is coming down the pike.” The Citizens United decision makes it clear just how long those advocating for the destruction of an America based on constitutional principles have been plotting their conquest.
“Progress requires investments in basic science and an educated labor force. Yet during his first term, Trump proposed such massive cuts in funding for research that even his fellow Republicans balked. Will they show the same willingness to resist him this time? In any case, is progress still possible when the institutions responsible for the advancement and transmission of knowledge are under constant attack? The MAGA movement would like nothing more than to tear down the ‘elite’ institutions where so much cutting-edge research occurs.
“No country can truly prosper if large portions of the population suffer from deficiencies in education, health, and nutritious food. In America, around 16% of children grow up in poverty, overall performance in international educational assessments is mediocre, malnutrition and homelessness have become pervasive, and life expectancy is the lowest of any major advanced economy. The only remedy is more and better public spending. Yet Trump and his team of oligarchs are committed to cutting the budget as much as they can. Doing so would leave the United States even more dependent on foreign labor. But immigrants, even highly skilled ones, are anathema to Trump’s MAGA followers.”
Stiglitz Sees Three Scenarios
1. The US finally comes to terms with its deep-seated problems, rejects the MAGA movement, and reaffirms its commitment to Enlightenment values.
2. The US and China continue down the road to oligarchic capitalism and authoritarian state capitalism, respectively, with the rest of the world lagging behind.
3. The US and China stay on their course, but Europe takes up the banner of progressive capitalism and social democracy.
Stiglitz thinks the second scenario is most likely, which means we must consider how long America’s growing deficiencies will remain manageable. Because China has massive advantages in developing technology and AI, thanks in part to its commitment to long-term planning. In addition, its diplomacy with non-western countries has been more successful than America’s. Yet neither China nor a Trumpian America is committed to the values that have driven progress since the late 18th century.
“Tragically, humanity is already grappling with existential challenges. Advances in technology have given us the means to destroy ourselves, and the best way to prevent that is through international law. In addition to the threats posed by climate change and pandemics, now we also have to worry about unregulated AI. Some will counter that while there may be a pause in progress, past investments in basic science will continue to yield valuable returns. Besides, the optimists might add, every dictatorship eventually ends, and history moves on. A century ago, fascism engulfed the world, but that led to a wave of democratization, with decolonization and civil-rights movements countering racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination.
“The problem is that those successful movements went only so far, and time is not on our side. Climate change will not wait for us to get our act together. Will Americans enjoy continued progress in the form of shared prosperity, based on education, health, safety, community, and a clean environment? I doubt it. And will the end of progress in America have knock-on effects globally? Almost surely. It is too soon to know what the full consequences of Trump’s second presidency will be. History does indeed move on; but it could leave progress behind,” Stiglitz writes.
He is not the only one who sees the political events of today as a giant step backwards, not just to fascism but all the way back to feudal times when monarchs and their sycophants were absolute masters of their domains. Vassals in England who gathered wood for fires to keep themselves warm or plucked an apple to eat because they were hungry were branded as criminals for stealing from the king.
Stiglitz can see where this is heading as the people bow and pray to the Orange God they made. He believes this will not end well for the struggle to preserve the Earth as a place that supports human life for any but the wealthiest. For some reason, people are cheering the destruction of liberal society and deliberately turning their backs on the tenets of John Locke, whose ideas were central to the thinking of the those who wrote the US Constitution. The framers did the best they could to create a system of checks and balances, but never anticipated that one group of super wealthy people would smash that system and leave America defenseless against the onslaught of what Steve Bannon calls “technofeudalism.”
The very idea of America is now aflame and many are cheering the inferno. To paraphrase a thought from more than a century ago, “The lamps are going out all across America. We shall never see them again in our lifetime.”
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