Survey Says: Tesla Faces the Most Sales Risk in …

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Last Updated on: 22nd March 2025, 12:47 am

On Sunday, I published an article and poll asking where Tesla faced the most risk — the USA, China, or Europe. To be honest, after that, I forgot about it. Until earlier today.

Almost 700 respondents chimed in (thanks for tuning in on Sunday, and for engaging with the poll). The result was strong and definitive. More than half of respondents (59%) thought that Tesla faced the most risk in Europe.

Second was China, with 25% of respondents thinking that is where Tesla faces the most sales risk. Perhaps the vote for China would have been higher after today’s news, or maybe the lack of evidence indicating Elon Musk was briefed by Donald Trump’s Pentagon on a potential war plan for China means China would still just get a quarter of the vote. Who knows?

In last place was the US, which I find a bit surprising — until I think again about the sales risk in China and the sales risk in Europe. Perhaps the US really is the market where Elon Musk can get away with more and consumers will keep gobbling up Teslas at high levels. Perhaps despite the fast-growing competition, we still lack anything like the EV options in China or even in Europe, and the Tesla brand is so strong in the US that it will continue to dominate the market (something it doesn’t do in China or Europe). We’ll see, but for now, only 16% of respondents picked the US as the market where Tesla faces the most sales risk.

Why was Europe the clear winner? It seems there are a few factors that made it the most common choice:

• World War II is very present in the minds of Europeans, much more so than it is with Americans, and Musk’s haphazard nonchalance about the Holocaust — if not his apparent support for Nazis and family history with Nazis — has really upset a lot of Europeans.
• There’s enormous competition in the EV market in Europe, and no one needs a Tesla.
• The Trump administration’s decision to abandon Ukraine, NATO, and European alliances has also disturbed a large portion of the European population, and everyone knows Musk is heavily aligned with Trump and condoning basically everything he does, including all of this. In fact, Musk has made abhorrent comments about Zelensky and Ukraine on a number of occasions.

• Musk has supported far-right political parties and propaganda in Germany, the UK, and Italy, further pissing off a large number of Europeans..

Full disclosure: Initially, I couldn’t vote on the poll. I normally have an opinion, but I was torn between the cases for each market and couldn’t pick one. It really depends on what happens in the coming months, and I just couldn’t make enough of an educated guess. However, one of the comments did quickly lean me toward Europe. So, I’ll end with that comment, from Geoff Willingham:

“Hmmm… at the moment (and obviously this is subject to change), I think China is going to be the least-affected by Musks antics in the US… yes, there’s going to be some dislike around Trumps tariffs that will rub off on Musk, and the arising issues with FSD in China… but compared to the EU and the US, those seem comparatively minor… and the biggest threat will be from other companies producing better / more desirable vehicles… but that will be a gradually decline, not a precipitous drop, imo.

“The US is extremely politicised, and people there are directly impacted by Musks actions, but Tesla also have the biggest slice of the market, and — as yet — there isn’t much competition, so those on the fence or otherwise ‘insulated’ from Musk will probably end up buying a Tesla (if they’re considering an EV) regardless.

“Thus, I think the EU may be at the most risk… we’re directly feeling the results of his tariffs too (like China), but he’s also directly meddling in the politics of multiple EU countries, and most countries in the EU also have a far more visceral dislike (or stronger) of Fascism, in that we had to live through it in a way that the US didn’t, just ~85 years ago.

“As such, I think there’s likely to be a much stronger reaction in the EU than China — and unlike the US, we also have far greater choice and options to pick from in the EU, plus (in many countries) good alternatives to the SuperCharger network (which used to be one of the major selling points for Tesla even after other models hit feature and price parity with Tesla EVs).

“As such, I think the market ‘most at risk’ will be the EU… although that’s as a percentage of its currently sales… whether it’s also most at risk in terms of total sales (rather than as a percentage of current sales), I’m not so sure — but I think it likely (for the reasons outlined above).

“But, all this is contingent on Musk not doing something tomorrow that seriously alienates a bigger slice of the US (and/or really hits home for the Chinese, etc).”

Indeed. Geoff covered his bases well at the end there, too. Overall, though, I think his extended argument captures why Europe so dominantly won the poll. Shall we compare the 2025 results to the 2024 results and declare an actual winner next January?