Why Hydrogen Electric Bus Programs Totally Confuse Me

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Almost 12 years ago, in 2013, I was in Barcelona for an EV conference, EVS 27. As part of the conference, we got to go on a little “field trip” with the local transit agency on a BYD electric bus. Out in some sprinkling rain with a group of other interested EV enthusiasts, I asked the director of that transit agency a bit more about what he had already stated or implied. He noted that initial testing indicated the battery-electric bus was cost-competitive with a conventional fossil-fueled bus. He also said that hydrogen bus testing, which they had been heavily involved in, showed hydrogen buses were much, much more expensive and they were giving up on hydrogen buses.

This morning, while editing Michael Barnard’s article “The Hydrogen Bus Illusion: Essen & Mülheim’s Costly Reality,” I read the following:

“Oslo, Norway, shut down its hydrogen bus program in 2011 because the refueling station was too expensive to maintain. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration’s 2012 report found that operational costs exceeded those of existing battery-electric buses. The report concluded that the program collapsed due to high expenses, unreliable refueling infrastructure, and ongoing technical failures that made it financially unviable.”

In 2010, perhaps there was some debate and rationale in testing hydrogen electric buses in transit fleets. There were still questions about which would be the more efficient and cost-effective solutions for zero-emissions transit. However, given findings from trials or pilot programs in 2011, 2012, and 2013, I don’t understand how the case wasn’t closed.

And, for sure, by 2025, I don’t understand how the case hasn’t been closed. Of course, it is closed to many people, and it was closed to some people by 2010 even. But there are still hydrogen buses rolling around and being ordered in numerous cities. I don’t get it — how are key decision makers still being convinced to order and operate super expensive hydrogen buses?

I understand there’s simple corruption in some cases. I understand there are many decision makers who are not very talented at math or science. However, they should have staff to turn to for help crunching the numbers and telling them what others have found. At the end of the day, everyone can understand the difference between $1 million and $10 million. It’s not that hard to look around, or ask around, and find out that hydrogen buses are extremely expensive whereas battery-electric buses are now cost competitive. So, I just don’t get it. How is the hydrogen bus market not completely dead by now?